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把时间序列分析方法引入排土场分析,对弓长岭露天矿排土场边坡位移监测点数据分别建立双对数模型、指数模型、线性模型、3阶多项式模型进行回归分析,找出物理量随时间变化的规律。依托现有实测工程数据,建立时序模型并优化之,将经典ARMA模型推广到ARIMA模型。依据所建模型给出位移预报曲线,并探讨边坡变形行为特征。对揭示边坡系统变形规律,选取最优防护体系具有指导意义,为工程数据分析和数值模拟提供了新思路。
The time series analysis method was introduced into the analysis of the dump, and the double logarithm model, the exponential model, the linear model and the third-order polynomial model were established for the data of slope displacement monitoring points in the dump of the Gongchangping Open-pit Mine, and the regression analysis was carried out to find out the physical quantities The law of change over time. Relying on the existing measured engineering data, the time series model is established and optimized, and the classical ARMA model is extended to the ARIMA model. According to the model, the displacement prediction curve is given and the deformation behavior of the slope is discussed. It is instructive to reveal the deformation law of slope system and select the optimal protection system, which provides a new idea for engineering data analysis and numerical simulation.