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在现实的门诊预约决策问题中,已经预约的患者在接受医疗服务之前,有可能取消先前的预约,也可能在就诊当天爽约,这些均会对医院的收益造成负面影响,如何在考虑患者存在取消预约和爽约的情形下,设计合理有效的门诊预约策略来保证医院的收益,是一个值得研究的问题.文章针对具有两类预约患者(提前预约患者和当天预约患者)的门诊预约决策问题,在考虑提前预约患者可能存在取消预约和爽约行为的情形下,提出了一种基于马尔可夫过程的门诊预约策略.文中首先以医院的期望收益最大作为决策目标,建立对提前预约患者进行超额预订的马尔可夫过程模型;基于所建立模型的特征,证明了对于任意的提前预约时段,存在不同爽约概率下提前预约患者的最佳预约数量,且此最佳预约数量随着爽约概率的增加而增加;进一步地,给出了该门诊预约问题的最优预约策略以及确定该策略的精确算法;最后通过数值实验说明了文章所提出的预约策略的适用性和有效性.
In the reality of out-patient appointment decision-making, patients who have reserved before canceling the previous appointment may cancel their appointments or they may be on the day of their visit. All these will have a negative impact on the hospital’s revenue and how to consider the patient’s cancellation It is worthwhile to study how to design a reasonable and effective outpatient booking strategy to ensure the hospital’s benefits.On the basis of outpatient reservation decision making with two kinds of appointment patients (patients in advance and patients in the same day) In the case of pre-appointment patients may have the abortion and booking behavior, this paper proposes a strategy of outpatient booking based on Markov process.In this paper, the hospital is expected to maximize the expected revenue as a decision-making goal, to establish an appointment for advance reservation patients overbooking Markov Process Model. Based on the characteristics of the established model, it is proved that there is an optimal reservation number for patients who have been scheduled in advance for different advance booking probabilities for any advance reservation period, and this optimal reservation amount increases with the probability of dismissal Furthermore, the optimal booking strategy of the outpatient reservation problem is given And determining the exact algorithm of the strategy; Finally, numerical experiments illustrate the applicability and validity of the reservation policy presented in this paper.