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随着一项美国法律的实施,中国经济将面临一场前所未见的寒流。近日,美国众议院税务委员会通过的《本土投资法》,将针对美国公司海外收益的所得税税率由35%下调为5.25%,期限为一年,条件是将这些收益投资于美国。据摩根大通测算,这将为美国带来超过4000亿美元的回流。随着中美经济相互依存度越来越高,这一美国经济的“暖流”很可能意味着中国经济的新“寒流”。如果从为人民币汇率升值减压的角度来看,美元回流美国,将给疲软的美元带来一定的支撑,进而使得中国的美元外汇储备升值,美国的这一政策可以说正中中国央行的下怀。似乎两厢情愿的背后却不那么简单,这里潜伏着一个对中国宏观经济前所未见的新挑战。当然这个隐患并不是因为央行的政策造
With the implementation of a U.S. law, China’s economy will face an unprecedented cold wave. Recently, the “Native Investment Act” adopted by the US House of Representatives Tax Committee has cut the income tax rate on overseas earnings of U.S. corporations from 35% to 5.25% for one year, provided that the proceeds are invested in the United States. According to JP Morgan calculations, this will bring more than 400 billion U.S. dollars to the United States. With the increasing economic and social interdependence between China and the United States, this “warm current” of the U.S. economy probably means a new “cold current” in China’s economy. If the dollar returns to the United States from the perspective of a depressurization of the RMB exchange rate, it will bring some support to the weak dollar and thus make China’s dollar foreign exchange reserves appreciate. This policy of the United States can be said that the Central Bank of China is embracing it. It seems that behind the wishful thinking is not so simple, here lurks a new challenge to China’s macroeconomic unprecedented. Of course, this hidden danger is not due to the policy of the central bank