谨慎地环视之后,笔者不安地察觉中国经济正步入1997年亚洲金融危机之后最严峻的战略困局中。 1.“日本病”前车可鉴,市场经济容不得虚与委蛇。如果下半年不增发国债,那么估计全年GDP增速将很难超过7.5％,而持续发展债本身则将给中央财政带来更为沉重的压力。 2.“新经济”中期调整,对中国经济冲击甚于亚洲危机。 3.APEC面临挑战,中国需重新定位 With a cautious look, the author is anxiously aware that China’s economy is heading into the most serious strategic dilemma after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. 1. “Japanese disease” a lesson in the foreseeable future, the market economy can not tolerate and appoint snakes. If the second half of the year does not issue additional national debt, it is estimated that the annual GDP growth will hardly exceed 7.5%, while the sustained development of debt itself will bring more tremendous pressure on the central government. 2. Mid-term adjustment of “new economy” will have a more impact on China’s economy than the crisis in Asia. APEC faces challenges and China needs to reposition itself