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本文旨在研究贝叶斯推理中基础比率、击中率起作用的机制。通过设置肝炎情境、中彩情境的贝叶斯推理问题,同时操作基础比率和击中率的水平,考察449名大学生被试的概率估计情况。结果表明,总体上,贝叶斯推理中的基础比率和击中率均起作用,表现为后验概率估计值随基础比率水平的提高而增加,随击中率水平的提高而增加。然而,在低基础比率的中彩情境中,后验概率估计值先随击中率的增加而增加;之后却随击中率水平的继续提高而显著降低,出现“自击中率参照抑制”。这似乎说明,击中率在贝叶斯推理中并非一致地起作用,而可能与推理者的知识经验对击中率加工的调节有关。
This article aims to study the basic ratio of Bayesian inference, the hit rate mechanism. Through setting the Bayesian reasoning problem of hepatitis situation and Zhongqiang situation, we also studied the probabilistic estimation of 449 college students by operating the basic rate and the hit rate. The results show that, in general, both the basic rate and the hit rate in Bayesian inference play a role, which means that the posterior probability estimates increase with the increase of the basic rate and increase with the increase of the hit rate. However, in the low-base-rate color-coded situations, the posterior probability estimates increase first with the increase of the hit rate, but then decrease significantly with the increase of the hit rate, resulting in the “self-hit rate” ". This seems to indicate that the hit rate does not work consistently in Bayesian reasoning, but may be related to the adjustment of the hit rate processing with the knowledge of the inferencer.