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未来中国制造业发展将从总量快速扩张转向内部调整。制造业快速发展是工业化推进早期阶段的一个主要特征。随着工业化程度提高,制造业占GDP比重将达到一个上限。根据钱纳里等人的研究,准工业国家(工业化第一阶段)制造业产出占GDP比重,一般模式为18%,大国模式为19%;当人均收入从28美元增至2100美元(1970年美元)时,制造业占GDP比重上升到35%。这也是这一比重的上限。多国经验均证实了这一规律。对我国的人均GDP水平和工业产值、就业比重的综合评估表明,当前我国基本处于工业化后期阶段,
The future development of China’s manufacturing industry will shift from rapid expansion of total volume to internal adjustment. The rapid development of manufacturing industry is a major feature of the early stages of industrialization. As the degree of industrialization increases, the share of manufacturing in GDP will reach a ceiling. According to the study of CHANARI et al., The share of manufacturing output in GDP in the quasi-industrialized countries (first phase of industrialization) is 18% of the GDP of the developed countries and 19% of the major power model. When per capita income rises from US $ 28 to US $ 2,100 (1970 Year U.S. dollar), the share of manufacturing in GDP rose to 35%. This is also the upper limit of this proportion. Multi-national experience have confirmed this rule. The comprehensive assessment of China’s per capita GDP level and industrial output value and employment proportion shows that at present China’s basic stage is in the later stage of industrialization,