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可靠性、维修性和可用性是描述复杂装置质量属性的三个重要指标。在某大型装置的现场故障和维修数据的经验分析基础上,运用分段线性模型确定了装置可靠性改进趋势。针对装置现场故障和维修数据的小样本问题,给出了装置现场可靠性和维修性的贝叶斯模型,并用WinBUGS软件对其进行了求解计算。继而分析给出了装置可用性最恰当描述——任务可用度的闭合表达形式。最后,通过与极大似然法进行对比,发现应用贝叶斯方法分析该大型装置现场可靠性更有效。
Reliability, maintainability and availability are three important indicators that describe the quality attributes of complex devices. Based on the empirical analysis of field failures and maintenance data of a large plant, the piecewise linear model was used to determine the trend of plant reliability improvement. Aiming at the small sample problem of on-site fault and maintenance data, a Bayesian model of on-site reliability and maintainability is given and solved by WinBUGS software. The analysis then gives the most appropriate description of device usability - the closed form of task availability. Finally, by comparing with the maximum likelihood method, it is found that it is more effective to analyze the reliability of the large-scale plant in the field using the Bayesian method.