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丰枯季节电价是需求侧响应的重要手段之一,制定合理的丰枯季节电价水平是其成功实施的关键。基于对用户历史数据和电力消费行为的分析,通过建立丰枯季节电价的电量电价弹性矩阵来反映用户对丰枯季节电价的响应。提出了丰枯季节用电量差异率、水火互济指数和电网公司实施丰枯季节电价的风险度的概念,并从电力市场运行风险的角度,利用风险价值(VaR)法对实施丰枯季节电价的市场效益进行了评估。建立了一种有效的丰枯季节电价决策模型,并利用遗传算法对该模型求解。算例仿真验证了所述方法的有效性。
The seasonal electricity price is one of the most important measures for the demand side response. It is the key to the successful implementation of a reasonable seasonal electricity price. Based on the analysis of user historical data and electricity consumption behavior, the user response to FengQu seasonal electricity price is reflected by the establishment of the electricity price elasticity matrix of FengQiao seasonal electricity price. This paper put forward the concept of the risk of electricity consumption in Feng-Qu season, the mutual aid index of water-fire and the risk of grid company implementing Feng-chuan seasonal electricity price. From the perspective of electricity market operation risk, The market price of electricity has been assessed. An effective decision model for seasonal and seasonal electricity price is established and the model is solved by genetic algorithm. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.