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目的预测徐州市乙型肝炎(乙肝)发病趋势,为制定科学的防控策略提供理论依据。方法根据2005—2015年徐州市乙肝发病率资料建立GM(1,1)预测模型,并对2016—2018年乙肝发病率进行预测。结果建立的乙肝发病率GM(1,1)预测模型为:(t)=-225.994 8e~(-0.0906t)+245.274 8,拟合精度和预测效果较好。2016—2018年徐州市乙肝发病率预测值分别为7.91/10万、7.23/10万、6.60/10万,呈下降趋势。结论 GM(1,1)模型较好地拟合了徐州市乙肝发病率在时间序列上的变化趋势,将其应用于乙肝发病率预测是可行的,预测结果对乙肝防控具有一定的参考意义。
Objective To predict the incidence of hepatitis B (Hepatitis B) in Xuzhou and provide a theoretical basis for formulating scientific prevention and control strategies. Methods According to the incidence of hepatitis B in Xuzhou City from 2005 to 2015, a GM (1,1) prediction model was established and the incidence of hepatitis B from 2016 to 2018 was predicted. Results The GM (1,1) predictive model of incidence of hepatitis B was (t) = - 225.994 8e ~ (-0.0906t) +245.274 8, and the fitting accuracy and prediction effect were good. In 2016-2018, the predicted incidence of hepatitis B in Xuzhou was 7.91 / 100000, 7.23 / 100000 and 6.60 / 100000 respectively, showing a decreasing trend. Conclusion The GM (1,1) model is a good fit for the time-series trend of incidence of hepatitis B in Xuzhou city. It is feasible to apply it to predict the incidence of hepatitis B. The prediction results have certain reference value for the prevention and control of hepatitis B .