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大规模伤亡事件(MCI)发生后,为不同伤员选择相应的医疗机构并决定伤员运送的先后顺序是救援的关键。医疗机构的选择和伤员运送的先后顺序不仅取决于伤员伤势严重程度和医疗资源(如医护人员、医院设施、救护车辆等)的数量,还与伤员的心理状况密切相关。本文针对事故发生后的应急响应阶段,综合考虑不同医疗机构资源的动态变化、伤员的实时生存概率和心理状况,构建了以伤员生存概率最大化和心理成本最小化为目标的双目标规划模型,运用模糊线性规划法将其转化,并通过IBM.ILOG.CPLEX进行模型求解。最后,通过对不同医疗资源数量情景下的实验进行比较分析,验证了本文模型和方法的有效性。
After mass incidents of injury (MCI), the key to rescue is to choose the appropriate medical institution for different wounded people and determine the order in which the injured will be transported. The selection of medical institutions and the order in which casualties are transported depend not only on the severity of the injuries and on the number of medical resources (such as health care workers, hospital facilities, ambulances, etc.), but also on the psychology of the injured. In this paper, according to the emergency response phase after the accident, considering the dynamic changes of resources in different medical institutions, the real-time survival probability and psychological status of the wounded, a bi-objective programming model with the goal of maximizing the survival probability and minimizing the psychological cost of the wounded is constructed, Transform it using fuzzy linear programming and solve the model through IBM.ILOG.CPLEX. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed model and method is verified through a comparative analysis of experiments under different scenarios of medical resources.