论文部分内容阅读
大豆进口需求强劲我国大豆进口主要是满足国内的豆粕的需求,因此,要预测未来10年大豆的走势,关键是要预测未来10年豆粕的需求,这又取决于未来10年我国畜牧业的发展。从发展来看,随着城乡居民饮食结构的改善,人均肉蛋奶需求量仍将坚挺,未来10年我国畜牧业仍将取得较大幅度的发展,畜牧业发展方式从农户散养向规模化、专业化转变,将消化更多的配合饲料,对豆粕形成了强劲的需求。假定未来10年我国的人均肉蛋奶消费需求增速、养殖方式转变速度、豆粕在饲料中的消费结构比重等因素不变,豆粕消费与前10年(2003~2012年)相同,大豆进口的增速保持不变。2003~2012年间,大豆净进口增长3 761万t,可以预测未来10年,我国大豆净进口可能增至9 567万t。国内大豆供给量增长有限从现实情况看,目前我国以保证粮食安全为首要目标,因此,大豆不可能去侵占其他高产粮食作物面
Soybean imports strong demand China’s soybean imports mainly to meet the needs of domestic soybean meal, therefore, to predict the trend of soybean in the next 10 years, the key is to predict the demand for soybean meal in the next 10 years, which in turn depends on the development of animal husbandry in China in the next 10 years . From the perspective of development, with the improvement of the dietary structure of urban and rural residents, the demand per capita of meat, egg and milk will remain strong. In the next 10 years, the livestock husbandry in our country will still achieve a more substantial development. The mode of animal husbandry development will be shifted from farmer households to large- , Professional change, will digest more compound feed, soybean meal formed a strong demand. Assuming that the consumption growth rate of per capita consumption of meat and eggs in China in the next 10 years, the rate of change in farming methods and the proportion of soybean meal in the feed structure will remain unchanged, the consumption of soybean meal will be the same as in the previous 10 years (2003-2012) Growth rate remains unchanged. Between 2003 and 2012, the net import of soybean increased by 37.61 million tons, and it is predicted that the net import of soybean may increase to 95.67 million tons in the next 10 years. Limited growth of domestic soybean supply From the reality, at present our country with the primary goal of ensuring food security, therefore, soybeans can not invade other high-yield grain crops