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航班时刻是机场运行的基础和核心,科学准确的预测机场未来的航班时刻需求量,对机场基础设施配置、空域资源的划分、机场运行模式的选择等具有重大意义。文章根据航班运行的时间和空间分布特征,按照我国民航划分的七大地区管理局的位置分布,建立全国机场航班起降量O-D矩阵,结合使用梯减法,把全国机场航班起降量的预测结果逐层分解到各地区,再到特定的目标机场,利用Detroit交通分布预测模型,对目标机场的航班时刻需求分布量做出预测。以北京首都机场为例,以2015年为基年,预测2020年的航班时刻需求量,并根据北京新机场的规划要求,确定新机场的航班量。
Flight time is the basis and core of airport operation. Scientifically and accurately forecasting the future demand of flight time is of great significance to the allocation of airport infrastructure, the division of airspace resources and the selection of airport operation mode. According to the time and space distribution characteristics of flight operations, the OD matrices of the national airport flight movements are established according to the distribution of the seven regional administrations divided by civil aviation in China. Combined with the ladder subtraction method, the forecast results of the national airport flight movements Delayering into different regions and then to specific target airports, Detroit traffic distribution forecasting model is used to predict the demand distribution of flight time at the target airport. Taking Beijing Capital Airport as an example, 2015 will be taken as the base year to forecast the flight demand in 2020 and to determine the flight volume of the new airport according to the planning requirements of the new airport in Beijing.