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目的构建北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾月发病的ARIMA模型,为防控工作提供依据。方法应用SPSS 18.0软件分析2004-2010年北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾月发病数资料,构建ARIMA乘积模型,并预测2011年细菌性痢疾月发病数。结果最优乘积模型为ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12,模型具有较高的预测精度,预测值与实际值基本吻合,且实际值均在预测值可信区间范围内。结论 ARIMA模型能够应用于北京市昌平区细菌性痢疾流行趋势的预测及疫情的预警、预报,为实施干预提供依据。
Objective To construct the ARIMA model of monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery in Changping District, Beijing, and provide the basis for prevention and control. Methods SPSS 18.0 software was used to analyze the monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery in Changping District of Beijing from 2004 to 2010. The ARIMA product model was constructed and the monthly incidence of bacterial dysentery in 2011 was predicted. The results of the best product model ARIMA (1,0,0) (1,1,1) 12, the model has a high prediction accuracy, the predicted value is consistent with the actual value, and the actual values are within the confidence interval of the prediction range Inside. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be applied to predict the epidemic trend of bacterial dysentery in Changping District of Beijing and to forecast and forecast the epidemic situation, and provide the basis for the implementation of the intervention.