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本文利用2001～2008年中国28个工业部门动态面板数据,采用一步系统广义矩估计方法,对中国工业行业贸易的就业效应进行整体和分部门两个层面上的实证研究。整体估计结果表明:工业品出口能够促进就业,工业品进口会减少劳动需求。分部门估计结果表明:进出口贸易对不同技术水平工业部门就业的影响程度上存在着不同;工业品出口在中高技术部门具有较强的促进作用,在中低技术部门作用较小;工业品进口对工业行业就业的替代作用在中低技术部门表现得更强。上期就业、工业行业产出的增长对就业具有显著的正向影响;而资本的增长对工业行业的整体就业产生显著的负向影响,工业行业存在资本替代劳动的现象,但分部门存在差异。最后阐述了实证发现的政策含义。
Based on the dynamic panel data of 28 industrial sectors in China from 2001 to 2008, this paper uses the one-step system generalized moment estimation method to study the employment effects of China’s industrial trade on a holistic and sub-sector level. The overall estimation shows that the export of industrial products can promote employment and the import of industrial products can reduce the demand for labor. Sub-sector estimates show that: the impact of import and export trade on the employment of different industries with different technical levels is different; the export of industrial products has a strong role in promoting the development of medium and high-tech sectors, while the role of low-tech sectors is small; the import of industrial products The substitution effect of employment in the industrial sector is stronger in the low-technology sector. In the previous employment, the growth of output in the industrial sector had a significant positive impact on employment. However, the growth of capital had a significant negative impact on the overall employment in the industrial sector. There was a phenomenon that capital replaced labor in the industrial sector, but there were differences in sub-sectors. Finally, it expounds the policy implications of empirical findings.