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本文应用Bongaarts模式分析江苏农村地区降低生育率的直接因素,由中间变量数值来表示。全省农村地区婚姻系数为0.5135,避孕系数为0.2648;人流系数为0.4734;产后不孕系数为0.8850;苏南地区分别为0.4389、0.3050、0.3641、0.9050;苏北地区分别为0.5503、0.2443、0.5348、0.8368。决定江苏农村地区生育率的直接因素依次为避孕、人流、晚婚、哺乳及其他作用甚小,特别是苏南地区晚婚及人流抑制出生数的作用高于苏北,而避孕和哺乳抑制出生数的作用低于苏北。
In this paper, the Bongaarts model is used to analyze the direct factors of reducing fertility in rural areas in Jiangsu, which are represented by intermediate variables. In the rural areas of the province, the marriage coefficient was 0.5135, the contraceptive coefficient was 0.2648, the flow coefficient was 0.4734, the postpartum infertility coefficient was 0.8850, the southern Jiangsu area was 0.4389, 0.3050, 0.3641, and 0.9050, and the northern area was 0.5503, 0.2443, and 0.5348, respectively. 0.8368. The direct factors deciding the fertility rate in rural areas in Jiangsu are contraceptive, abortion, late marriage, breastfeeding, and other minor effects. In particular, the effects of late marriage and abortion suppression on the number of births in southern Jiangsu are higher than those in northern Jiangsu, and contraception and breastfeeding inhibit the number of births. Less effective than northern Jiangsu.