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IN last March’s government work report to the National People’s Congress， China’s top legislature， Premier Li Keqiang announced that the country’s growth target for this year is around 7.5 percent. In terms of other economic matters， China plans to rein in consumer price index （CPI） growth to about 3.5 percent， create 10 million or more new urban jobs， and cap the registered unemployment rate for urban residents at 4.6 percent. It also vows to maintain basic balance of international payments， to retain the rise in citizen incomes in tandem with economic development， and to step up overall planning of major issues such as GDP growth， employment， pricing， and international payments.
Why 7.5 Percent？
The Chinese government has set the 2014 GDP target at around 7.5 percent on the basis of the current situation in the country， where China is purposely gearing down economic growth， while the overhauling of its economic structure and earlier stimulus policies have just begun to show effect.
As the premier explains in the report， China is still a developing country in the early stages of socialism， where development holds the key to solving all the problems it faces. It must， therefore， focus on economic development to sustain its economic growth at a reasonable rate. Careful calculations and scrutiny of needs and challenges have led to China setting its 2014 growth target at around 7.5 percent.
According to Wang Xiaodong， executive vice-governor of Hubei Province， although China no longer gauges its development merely by GDP figures， it will continue to press on with economic growth.
When the 7.5 percent target was revealed， the Wall Street Journal interpreted it： “This matches the projection for the past two years and is roughly the same as every year in the past two decades， when the target rate has been between seven percent and eight percent， all apparently designed to signal stability and continuity.” The Straits Times of Singapore called it part of China’s efforts in “leaving room for slower but quality growth as the country embarks on one of its most ambitious reforms in three decades.” Reuters， meanwhile， com-mented： “Some analysts had welcomed the 7.5 percent goal as a sign that Beijing will keep the world’s second-biggest economy on a steady footing， while pursuing sweeping reforms likely to dampen activity in the near term.”
The 7.5 percent target takes into account China’s practical needs to boost market confidence， to optimize the economic structure， and to realize its longterm goal of building a better-off society. Stable economic growth is also needed to provide employment for urban residents joining the labor market for the first time， as well as for farmers seeking their fortune in the city. Calculations show that， only if the Chinese GDP expands by 7.5 percent for the year， would China be able to create no less than 10 million jobs and keep urban unemployment below 4.6 percent. Rational wiggle room should be allowed for growth projections. As president of the China Institute for Reform and Development （CIRD） Chi Fulin noted， this year the government work report’s wording： “increase GDP by about 7.5 percent，” indicates the rate is not the rock-bottom requirement as before， and slightly up or down would be acceptable.
According to Yuan Zhigang， dean of Fudan University’s School of Economics， this year China is poised to walk a fine line between economic growth and restructuring. Last July， Premier Li Keqiang raised the idea of “reasonable range” growth， signifying new thinking among Chinese leaders in terms of macroeconomic controls： when the economy is staying afloat well above the baseline， the government will focus on reforms and restructuring； when growth is decelerating and approaching the red line， attention will be shifted toward stabilizing growth and controlling risk.
This means China’s policymakers will be less squeamish about any economic slowdown， becoming more concerned about long-term effects of macroeconomic regulation， rather than short-term losses or gains. Peng Sen， a member of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and vice-chairman of its Financial and Economic Affairs Committee， ruled out the chance of China rolling out another massive simulative program like the one during the previous financial crisis. Actually， none of the State Council meetings the premier has convened over the past year discussed possible plans for short-term stimulus.
In terms of how to choose the best economic policies， the premier holds the view that short-term stimulus might be used as an expedient measure to reverse an economic slump but offers no solution to underlying problems. He therefore opts for stable macroeconomic policies that can yield long-term benefits without incurring damage in the short term.
Unleashing Development Dividend via Reforms
As for how to realize 7.5 percent growth， Premier Li Keqiang enumerated China’s foundation and favorable conditions for its achievement. According to Li， China is still in a period of important strategic opportunities， which allows the country to develop itself to the fullest. What’s more， its industrialization and urbanization is progressing， and regional development is seeing vast possibilities.
In his report to the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China （CPC）， delivered on November 8， 2012， then General Secretary Hu Jintao proposed that China would place a premium on its real economy， as a strengthened real economy will lay a solid foundation for sustainable development. The report pointed out： “We should focus on developing the real economy as a firm foundation of the economy. We should adopt policies and measures to better facilitate the development of the real economy. We should make the economy more demand-driven， promote the sound growth of strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing industries， accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries， develop and expand the service sector， especially modern service industries， and better balance the geographical and structural layout of the development of infrastructure and basic industries.” If China does not rely on a large-scale stimulus package to fuel its economy， deepening reform will become its growth engine. These reforms are set to make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation while the government plays an enhanced role. Meanwhile， related reforms will be advanced to push forward the adjustment of economic structure， and remove barriers curbing market player vitality and impeding optimal allocation of production factors， so as to fully unleash the creative potential of the whole society.
In his report on the work of the government， Premier Li indicates， “The development we seek is development that is of better quality and returns， promotes industrial transformation and upgrading， and improves people’s lives. While maintaining steady growth， we need to shift from relying mainly on increasing inputs of production factors to driving development more by innovation， and from relying mainly on traditional comparative strengths to utilizing overall competitive advantages. We need to move up from the low to middle range of the international division of labor to the middle to high range， and shift from unbalanced urban-rural development to coordinated and balanced development.”
According to Wang Jun， vice-director of the Department of Consultancy under the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， as 2014 is the first year for China to carry out the range of reforms set down at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee， institutional dividends brought about by the reforms will impel the country’s economic operation， and enhance the stability of its economic growth， lessening volatility. Moreover， Wang points out that China’s macro controls would follow the principle of different measures for different growth situations， which means， if China’s economic growth nudges toward a projected rock bottom or soars too high， corresponding regulatory measures would be taken.
Li Yining， a professor with Peking University， holds this view： “China’s new demographic， resource and reform dividends are replacing the old ones. With the generation of new demographic dividends， China is transitioning to an era of advanced technicians from the era of technicians. Meanwhile， owing to the high investments in science and technology， new resource dividends are emerging. In contrast to China’s old resource dividends， the new dividends are mainly embodied in the application and utilization of science and technology， for example， seawater desalination which increases the country’s freshwater resources， and fighting desertification which expands China’s arable land. Newly introduced reforms are bound to bring new opportunities for China’s economic development.” Clear-cut Reform Measures
Li Keqiang emphasizes in his report that the government will deepen reform of the administrative system， further streamlining administration and delegating more power to lower-level governments， while deepening reform of the investment approval system， as well as establishing a system to list all items over which government review and approval are required. Reform of the business registration system， featuring easier registration and stricter management， is introduced nationwide as a key part of the country’s administrative approval system reform and the transformation of government functions. The registration of subscribed capital is carried out nationwide. Issuing operating permits before licenses，which was the practice in the past， will be replaced with the practice of license first， operating permit second. Annual inspections of businesses will be replaced by annual reporting. All these will further activate market players.
High priority will be given to reform of fiscal and tax systems. As an integral part of reform of the country’s economic system， reform in this field will be critical， whether from the perspective of transforming government functions or from that of changing the government’s work mode. Premier Li Keqiang indicates that the government will institute a comprehensive， well-regulated， open and transparent budget system. He emphasizes that all public spending on official overseas visits， official vehicles and official hospitality should be made public， to ensure transparency， making it easier for people to understand and oversee public finances.
In addition， China will increase the proportion of general transfer payments， and cut the number of special transfer payments by one third this year and continue cutting in the coming years， in a bid to further promote equalization of basic public services and coordinated regional development. While advancing reform of the tax system， trials for replacing the business tax with VAT （Value Added Tax） will be extended to railway transport， postal and telecommunications industries. This will promote the adjustment of economic structure and improve the tax system. This year will also see the advancement of reform of excise and resource taxes， and progress in legislation on real estate and environmental protection taxes. All these will serve as support for the country’s sound and stable economic development. As one of the sally ports for China’s reform of the economic system， reform of financial sectors will be advanced. China will continue to liberalize interest rates by granting financial institutions more power to set them. Globally， China will keep the Renminbi exchange rate basically stable at appropriate， balanced levels， while expanding its floating range and moving toward Renminbi convertibility under capital accounts. Domestically China will steadily promote the es- tablishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions by private capital， and guide private capital to invest in or hold shares in financial institutions and intermediary financing services， so as to promote beneficial competition in the financial field.
As for emerging Internet finance， Premier Li proposes that China will promote the healthy development of Internet banking and improve the mechanisms for coordinating financial oversight. To guarantee the country’s financial security， China will keep a close watch on the cross-border flow of capital， and ensure that no systemic or regional financial risks ensue. In addition， the Premier also explains the objective：“We will ensure that financial services play an active role in meeting the needs of the real economy， including small and micro businesses， agriculture， rural areas， and farmers.”
As a pillar of China’s economy， the state-owned sector has been suitably addressed in Premier Li’s report. China will improve the distribution and structure of the state-owned sector of the economy， establish a sound modern corporate structure and corporate governance， improve the system for managing state-owned assets， clearly define the functions of different SOEs， and carry out trials for investing state capital in corporate operations. Moreover， China will improve budgeting of state capital operations and raise the percentage of earnings from state capital turned over to public finance by central governmentowned enterprises.
Meanwhile， China will accelerate its pace in developing a mixed ownership economy to spark economic vitality. A spate of projects in such areas as banking， oil， electricity， railways， telecommunications， resources development and public utilities will be introduced， open to participation by non-state capital. China will formulate specific measures to permit non-public enterprise participation in franchising. Moreover， China will improve the property rights system to ensure that property rights are inviolable in both the public and non-public sectors.
Why 7.5 Percent？
The Chinese government has set the 2014 GDP target at around 7.5 percent on the basis of the current situation in the country， where China is purposely gearing down economic growth， while the overhauling of its economic structure and earlier stimulus policies have just begun to show effect.
As the premier explains in the report， China is still a developing country in the early stages of socialism， where development holds the key to solving all the problems it faces. It must， therefore， focus on economic development to sustain its economic growth at a reasonable rate. Careful calculations and scrutiny of needs and challenges have led to China setting its 2014 growth target at around 7.5 percent.
According to Wang Xiaodong， executive vice-governor of Hubei Province， although China no longer gauges its development merely by GDP figures， it will continue to press on with economic growth.
When the 7.5 percent target was revealed， the Wall Street Journal interpreted it： “This matches the projection for the past two years and is roughly the same as every year in the past two decades， when the target rate has been between seven percent and eight percent， all apparently designed to signal stability and continuity.” The Straits Times of Singapore called it part of China’s efforts in “leaving room for slower but quality growth as the country embarks on one of its most ambitious reforms in three decades.” Reuters， meanwhile， com-mented： “Some analysts had welcomed the 7.5 percent goal as a sign that Beijing will keep the world’s second-biggest economy on a steady footing， while pursuing sweeping reforms likely to dampen activity in the near term.”
The 7.5 percent target takes into account China’s practical needs to boost market confidence， to optimize the economic structure， and to realize its longterm goal of building a better-off society. Stable economic growth is also needed to provide employment for urban residents joining the labor market for the first time， as well as for farmers seeking their fortune in the city. Calculations show that， only if the Chinese GDP expands by 7.5 percent for the year， would China be able to create no less than 10 million jobs and keep urban unemployment below 4.6 percent. Rational wiggle room should be allowed for growth projections. As president of the China Institute for Reform and Development （CIRD） Chi Fulin noted， this year the government work report’s wording： “increase GDP by about 7.5 percent，” indicates the rate is not the rock-bottom requirement as before， and slightly up or down would be acceptable.
According to Yuan Zhigang， dean of Fudan University’s School of Economics， this year China is poised to walk a fine line between economic growth and restructuring. Last July， Premier Li Keqiang raised the idea of “reasonable range” growth， signifying new thinking among Chinese leaders in terms of macroeconomic controls： when the economy is staying afloat well above the baseline， the government will focus on reforms and restructuring； when growth is decelerating and approaching the red line， attention will be shifted toward stabilizing growth and controlling risk.
This means China’s policymakers will be less squeamish about any economic slowdown， becoming more concerned about long-term effects of macroeconomic regulation， rather than short-term losses or gains. Peng Sen， a member of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and vice-chairman of its Financial and Economic Affairs Committee， ruled out the chance of China rolling out another massive simulative program like the one during the previous financial crisis. Actually， none of the State Council meetings the premier has convened over the past year discussed possible plans for short-term stimulus.
In terms of how to choose the best economic policies， the premier holds the view that short-term stimulus might be used as an expedient measure to reverse an economic slump but offers no solution to underlying problems. He therefore opts for stable macroeconomic policies that can yield long-term benefits without incurring damage in the short term.
Unleashing Development Dividend via Reforms
As for how to realize 7.5 percent growth， Premier Li Keqiang enumerated China’s foundation and favorable conditions for its achievement. According to Li， China is still in a period of important strategic opportunities， which allows the country to develop itself to the fullest. What’s more， its industrialization and urbanization is progressing， and regional development is seeing vast possibilities.
In his report to the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China （CPC）， delivered on November 8， 2012， then General Secretary Hu Jintao proposed that China would place a premium on its real economy， as a strengthened real economy will lay a solid foundation for sustainable development. The report pointed out： “We should focus on developing the real economy as a firm foundation of the economy. We should adopt policies and measures to better facilitate the development of the real economy. We should make the economy more demand-driven， promote the sound growth of strategic emerging industries and advanced manufacturing industries， accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries， develop and expand the service sector， especially modern service industries， and better balance the geographical and structural layout of the development of infrastructure and basic industries.” If China does not rely on a large-scale stimulus package to fuel its economy， deepening reform will become its growth engine. These reforms are set to make the market play a decisive role in resource allocation while the government plays an enhanced role. Meanwhile， related reforms will be advanced to push forward the adjustment of economic structure， and remove barriers curbing market player vitality and impeding optimal allocation of production factors， so as to fully unleash the creative potential of the whole society.
In his report on the work of the government， Premier Li indicates， “The development we seek is development that is of better quality and returns， promotes industrial transformation and upgrading， and improves people’s lives. While maintaining steady growth， we need to shift from relying mainly on increasing inputs of production factors to driving development more by innovation， and from relying mainly on traditional comparative strengths to utilizing overall competitive advantages. We need to move up from the low to middle range of the international division of labor to the middle to high range， and shift from unbalanced urban-rural development to coordinated and balanced development.”
According to Wang Jun， vice-director of the Department of Consultancy under the China Center for International Economic Exchanges， as 2014 is the first year for China to carry out the range of reforms set down at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee， institutional dividends brought about by the reforms will impel the country’s economic operation， and enhance the stability of its economic growth， lessening volatility. Moreover， Wang points out that China’s macro controls would follow the principle of different measures for different growth situations， which means， if China’s economic growth nudges toward a projected rock bottom or soars too high， corresponding regulatory measures would be taken.
Li Yining， a professor with Peking University， holds this view： “China’s new demographic， resource and reform dividends are replacing the old ones. With the generation of new demographic dividends， China is transitioning to an era of advanced technicians from the era of technicians. Meanwhile， owing to the high investments in science and technology， new resource dividends are emerging. In contrast to China’s old resource dividends， the new dividends are mainly embodied in the application and utilization of science and technology， for example， seawater desalination which increases the country’s freshwater resources， and fighting desertification which expands China’s arable land. Newly introduced reforms are bound to bring new opportunities for China’s economic development.” Clear-cut Reform Measures
Li Keqiang emphasizes in his report that the government will deepen reform of the administrative system， further streamlining administration and delegating more power to lower-level governments， while deepening reform of the investment approval system， as well as establishing a system to list all items over which government review and approval are required. Reform of the business registration system， featuring easier registration and stricter management， is introduced nationwide as a key part of the country’s administrative approval system reform and the transformation of government functions. The registration of subscribed capital is carried out nationwide. Issuing operating permits before licenses，which was the practice in the past， will be replaced with the practice of license first， operating permit second. Annual inspections of businesses will be replaced by annual reporting. All these will further activate market players.
High priority will be given to reform of fiscal and tax systems. As an integral part of reform of the country’s economic system， reform in this field will be critical， whether from the perspective of transforming government functions or from that of changing the government’s work mode. Premier Li Keqiang indicates that the government will institute a comprehensive， well-regulated， open and transparent budget system. He emphasizes that all public spending on official overseas visits， official vehicles and official hospitality should be made public， to ensure transparency， making it easier for people to understand and oversee public finances.
In addition， China will increase the proportion of general transfer payments， and cut the number of special transfer payments by one third this year and continue cutting in the coming years， in a bid to further promote equalization of basic public services and coordinated regional development. While advancing reform of the tax system， trials for replacing the business tax with VAT （Value Added Tax） will be extended to railway transport， postal and telecommunications industries. This will promote the adjustment of economic structure and improve the tax system. This year will also see the advancement of reform of excise and resource taxes， and progress in legislation on real estate and environmental protection taxes. All these will serve as support for the country’s sound and stable economic development. As one of the sally ports for China’s reform of the economic system， reform of financial sectors will be advanced. China will continue to liberalize interest rates by granting financial institutions more power to set them. Globally， China will keep the Renminbi exchange rate basically stable at appropriate， balanced levels， while expanding its floating range and moving toward Renminbi convertibility under capital accounts. Domestically China will steadily promote the es- tablishment of small and medium-sized banks and other financial institutions by private capital， and guide private capital to invest in or hold shares in financial institutions and intermediary financing services， so as to promote beneficial competition in the financial field.
As for emerging Internet finance， Premier Li proposes that China will promote the healthy development of Internet banking and improve the mechanisms for coordinating financial oversight. To guarantee the country’s financial security， China will keep a close watch on the cross-border flow of capital， and ensure that no systemic or regional financial risks ensue. In addition， the Premier also explains the objective：“We will ensure that financial services play an active role in meeting the needs of the real economy， including small and micro businesses， agriculture， rural areas， and farmers.”
As a pillar of China’s economy， the state-owned sector has been suitably addressed in Premier Li’s report. China will improve the distribution and structure of the state-owned sector of the economy， establish a sound modern corporate structure and corporate governance， improve the system for managing state-owned assets， clearly define the functions of different SOEs， and carry out trials for investing state capital in corporate operations. Moreover， China will improve budgeting of state capital operations and raise the percentage of earnings from state capital turned over to public finance by central governmentowned enterprises.
Meanwhile， China will accelerate its pace in developing a mixed ownership economy to spark economic vitality. A spate of projects in such areas as banking， oil， electricity， railways， telecommunications， resources development and public utilities will be introduced， open to participation by non-state capital. China will formulate specific measures to permit non-public enterprise participation in franchising. Moreover， China will improve the property rights system to ensure that property rights are inviolable in both the public and non-public sectors.