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本文对1990~2011这22年间中国制造业的RCA指数、劳动力成本、劳动生产率及FDI的变化进行的计量结果显示,我国制造业比较优势逐年提高,劳动力成本和劳动生产率上升也很快,而吸引的FDI虽较多,但是近年来的增长率放缓。对中国劳动力成本及FDI建立了ARMA模型预测、对劳动生产率建立BP滤波分析的结果显示,我国劳动力成本上升的趋势将不可避免,而我国吸引的FDI将在2013~2018年逐步趋稳,增长率很低甚至出现负增长,我国劳动生产率将在长期内保持快速增长的趋势。然后用影响因素制造业RCA指数进行了回归分析发现,劳动力成本对我国制造业比较优势有显著的负向影响,而劳动生产率和FDI有显著的正向影响,所以在劳动力成本上升趋势不可避免的情况下,不能再继续依靠招商引资的方式提高我国制造业比较优势;只有提高我国制造业的劳动生产率,才是保持和提高我国制造业比较优势的最佳途径。
In this paper, the measurement results of RCA index, labor cost, labor productivity and FDI in China’s manufacturing industry from 1990 to 2011 show that the comparative advantages of manufacturing industry in our country are increasing year by year, labor costs and labor productivity also increase rapidly, attracting Although there is more FDI, the growth rate has slowed in recent years. The ARMA model is established for labor cost and FDI in China. The BP filtering analysis of labor productivity shows that the rising cost of labor in China will be inevitable. However, the FDI attracted by China will gradually stabilize in 2013 ~ 2018 and the growth rate Very low or even negative growth, China’s labor productivity will maintain rapid growth in the long term. Then using the regression analysis of the manufacturing RCA index, we find that the labor cost has a significant negative impact on the comparative advantage of China’s manufacturing industry, while the labor productivity and FDI have a significant positive impact, so the labor cost rising trend is inevitable In the circumstances, we can no longer continue to rely on attracting foreign investment to enhance the comparative advantage of the manufacturing industry in our country. Only by raising the labor productivity of the manufacturing industry in our country is the best way to maintain and enhance the comparative advantage of the manufacturing industry in our country.