最近,金融市场的“黑天鹅”现象集群出现,让人想起一句名言:在一个复杂的系统中,如果出错,错误往往不是用程度来衡量,而是用级别来衡量的。2016年12月上旬,股债汇三杀引发市场极大的恐慌,股市2016年12月5日创近半年的最大跌幅。美联储(FED)吹风一年有余的加息靴子落地,虽在预期之内,但市场依然一片哀嚎,汇率创出八年半以来的新低。债市随即出现恐 Recently, the “Black Swan” cluster of financial markets has emerged, reminiscent of the famous saying: In a complex system, mistakes are often not measured by degree but by level. In early December 2016, the stock exchange three kills triggered a great market panic, the stock market December 5, 2016 the biggest decline in nearly six months. The Federal Reserve (FED) hair blowing more than a year of interest rate hikes boots, although within expectations, but the market is still a cry, the exchange rate hit a 8-year low since. Bond market there fear