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美欧自金融危机爆发延续至今的经济动荡,并非源于偶然的政策失误,也不能归于周期性经济阵痛,实际属于经济模式遭遇的深刻危机,这意味着美国金融霸权主导的国际体系已处于超载状态,世界经济将长期陷于低迷,步入重大动荡期和调整期。为摆脱危机美国的政策调整可能在世界范围产生传导效应甚至危害,对国际战略总体形势以及中国的发展与安全产生重大而深远的影响。中美之间的战略竞争已进入深度互动的关键时期,这一时期将持续十年甚至更长时间。中美之间尤其在亚太地区的战略博弈,不仅具有前所未有的全面性和深刻性,也具有前所未有的复杂性和敏感性。对此中国应充分认识国际体系变迁以及由此带来的国家间关系的复杂化趋势,趋利避害,有效消解战略压力,坚决维护对外关系的总体平衡和稳定,本着冷静观察、充分准备、积极应对的原则,有针对性地投棋布子,积极运筹国际变局,尤其应重点强化经营周边的力度,拓展回旋空间。
The economic turmoil that the United States and Europe have sustained since the outbreak of the financial crisis has not stemmed from occasional policy mistakes or due to the cyclical economic pains and actually belongs to the profound crisis in the economic model. This means that the international system dominated by the U.S. financial hegemony is already overloaded State, the world economy will be downturn for a long time, entering a period of major turmoil and adjustment. In order to get rid of the crisis, the policy adjustment in the United States may have a conduction effect or even a worldwide harm. It will have a profound and far-reaching impact on the overall situation of international strategy and on China’s development and security. The strategic competition between China and the United States has entered a critical period of deep interaction that will last ten years or more. The strategic game between China and the United States, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, not only has unprecedented comprehensiveness and profoundness, but also has unprecedented complexity and sensitivity. In response, China should fully understand the complicated trend of changes in the international system and the resulting inter-state relations, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, effectively eliminate strategic pressures and resolutely safeguard the overall balance and stability of its foreign relations. With calm observation and full preparation , Actively respond to the principle of targeted selection of chess, actively planning the international change, in particular, should focus on strengthening the management of the surrounding efforts to expand the space for maneuver.