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进入2009年以来,在我国经济刺激政策的强力提振下,沪胶市场呈现震荡回升的格局,累计反弹幅度最高达到85%;但是目前宏观经济形势仍不明朗,市场观望情绪加重,国内政策面的影响将逐渐削弱,而天然橡胶季节性供应高峰到来,国内汽车销售也可能步入淡季,预计第三季度天然橡胶市场走势不容乐观。2009年年底全球经济将逐渐走出低谷的预期强烈,天然橡胶基本面供应压力逐渐释放,国内汽车销售由淡转旺,通胀预期增强,天然橡胶市场第四季度再度上行的可能性较大,预计下半年沪胶市场走势或呈现先抑后扬的格局,价格可能在13500～17000元之间波动。
Since 2009, Hujiao market has shown a pattern of turbulent rebound under the strong boost of China’s economic stimulus policies. The rebound rate has reached a maximum of 85%. However, the current macroeconomic situation is still uncertain. Market sentiment is on the rise. Domestic policy The impact will gradually weaken, and the arrival of seasonal peak supply of natural rubber, domestic auto sales may also enter the off-season, is expected in the third quarter of the natural rubber market is not optimistic. The global economy will gradually bottom out at the end of 2009, the expected strong natural rubber supply pressure gradually release the fundamentals, the domestic auto sales by the prosperous, inflation expectations increase, the natural rubber market in the fourth quarter, the possibility of re-upward again, is expected to Half a year Hujiao market trend or showing suppression pattern, the price may fluctuate between 13500 ~ 17000 yuan.