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本文认为，经济周期在市场经济发展中必然出现，问题的关键在于避免周期中的超常波动并缓和常规波动。为此，国家应当自觉掌握反周期的宏观经济政策。文章讨论经济周期基本概念后，对建国以来４０余年中的经济周期作了实证考察，并以马克思主义基本原理为指南，对我国经济周期形成的机理提出了综合性的分析和分阶段的表述。认为改革以来经济周期的发生机理已经变化为决策色彩有所消退、体制因素仍然不可忽视、再生产投资节律因素大为显化的新式多因素组合周期，其现象形态与市场经济下的通例起于靠拢；并考察了世界上它国经济周期因素对我国的影响。据此，文章提出了反周期的宏观经济政策的基本思路，包括实施积极合理的宏观调控，在总量调节上与周期逆向，在结构调节上扶短抑长，财政与货币政策各有侧重相互配合，贯彻产业政策，改进政府收支方式和财政信用，精心掌握国际收支调节以及在配套改革中依周期不同阶段而因势利导，等等，以促进经济健康发展。
This paper argues that the economic cycle inevitably occurs in the development of market economy. The crux of the problem lies in avoiding extraordinary fluctuations in the cycle and easing conventional fluctuations. Therefore, the state should consciously grasp countercyclical macroeconomic policies. After discussing the basic concepts of the economic cycle, the article makes an empirical study of the economic cycle in more than 40 years since the founding of the People’s Republic of China and makes a comprehensive analysis and phased expression of the formation mechanism of our country’s economy based on the basic principles of Marxism. The author thinks that the mechanism of the economic cycle since the reform has changed into a new multi-factor combination cycle in which the decision-making color has subsided, the institutional factors still can not be ignored, and the rhythm of reproduction investment has been greatly manifested. The phenomena and patterns in the market economy have become closer ; And examines the impact of other countries in the world economic cycle on our country. Accordingly, the article puts forward the counter-cyclical macroeconomic policy, including the implementation of a positive and rational macro-control, reversal of the cycle of the total amount of adjustment, shortening the length of the structural adjustment, fiscal and monetary policy have each focused on each other Cooperate with and implement industrial policies, improve the government’s revenue and expenditure and financial credit, master the adjustment of the balance of payments and make the best use of the various reforms at the different stages of the cycle so as to promote sound economic development.