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以长江中下游地区48个站点1961-2012年的气象资料为基础,利用统计分析、Mann-Kendall和小波分析的方法研究了早稻生长季前期冷害、后期冷害、后期热害的时空变化。结果表明:(1)52年来早稻生长季气温呈极显著升高趋势(>0.5℃/10a);(2)前期冷害和后期冷害均从2000年初开始出现减弱趋势,后期热害从2000年初开始有显著增强趋势;(3)空间分布上,前期冷害高风险区基本与山脉地形特征相吻合,而后期冷害与水系的分布相关性很高。
Based on the meteorological data of 48 stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1961 to 2012, the temporal and spatial variations of chilling injury, late chilling injury and later-stage thermal damage in early rice growth season were studied by means of statistical analysis, Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results showed that: (1) The temperature of early rice growing season showed a very significant increase trend (> 0.5 ℃ / 10a) in 52 years; (2) The chilling injury and late chilling injury of the early rice decreased gradually from the beginning of 2000; (3) On the spatial distribution, the high-risk area of pre-chilling injury is consistent with the topographic features of the mountains, while the post-chilling injury is highly correlated with the distribution of water systems.