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人口和教育是有着各自独特的变化规律而又相互作用的两个社会系统。教育以人口为对象,是提高人口质量的重要手段;人口的数量、结构及波动,会给教育带来直接而深刻的影响。首先,对丰泽区建区以来普通中学在校生的现状进行分析;其次,利用优化的灰色预测模型对2011-2020年丰泽区普通中学在校生人数和专任教师需求量进行预测;最后,根据预测得到的具体数据,深入分析在校生数量的变化对教育发展产生的影响,提出合乎普通中学在校生发展趋势的教育发展战略,为丰泽区制定教育发展规划提供科学的理论依据。
Population and education are two social systems that have their own unique changing rules and interact with each other. Education as a target for the population is an important means to improve the quality of the population. The quantity, structure and fluctuation of the population will have a direct and profound impact on education. Firstly, the status quo of ordinary middle school students in Fengze District was analyzed. Secondly, the gray prediction model was used to predict the number of students and full-time teachers in middle schools in Fortress District in 2011-2020. Finally, Predict the specific data obtained, deeply analyze the impact of the change in the number of students on the development of education, put forward the education development strategy in line with the general secondary school students’ development trend, and provide a scientific theoretical basis for the educational development planning in Fengze District.