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许多实验研究表明,投标者在拍卖过程中表现出的预期后悔心理行为会对投标策略产生影响,在这种情况下如何确定最优投标策略是一个值得关注的问题。针对一级密封拍卖的最优投标策略确定问题,分别采用线性函数和非线性函数刻画投标者的获胜者后悔和失败者后悔心理行为,构建非线性拍卖模型,通过模型求解分析最优投标策略;进一步地,给出确定拍卖模型中描述投标者后悔心理行为参数的实验方法,并通过一个关于SO2排污权拍卖的实例分析说明非线性拍卖模型及实验方法的可行性和潜在应用。研究结果表明,最优投标策略与投标者价值和后悔行为有关;最优投标策略为获胜者后悔参数的减函数,且为失败者后悔参数的增函数;完全理性的最优投标策略是所得最优投标策略的特例;当投标者人数非常多时,完全理性的最优投标策略是报出自身的真实估价;在仅考虑投标者获胜后悔情形下,其最优投标策略与线性拍卖模型所得结果相同,且低于完全理性的最优投标策略;在仅考虑投标者失败后悔情形下,其最优投标策略高于完全理性的最优投标策略;与线性拍卖模型比较,由非线性拍卖模型得到的最优投标策略更接近于真实投标报价。提出的非线性拍卖模型为解决现实拍卖中考虑投标者心理行为的最优投标策略确定问题提供借鉴。
Many experimental studies have shown that the bidder’s expected regret psychology behavior during the auction will have an impact on the bidding strategy. How to determine the optimal bidding strategy in this case is a concern. Aiming at the problem of determining the optimal bidding strategy of the first level seal auction, the bidder’s winner’s regret and the regret’s psychological behavior are depicted by linear function and non-linear function respectively. The non-linear auction model is constructed and the optimal bidding strategy is solved by the model. Furthermore, the experimental method for determining the parameters of bidder’s regret behavior in the auction model is given. The feasibility and potential application of nonlinear auction models and experimental methods are illustrated by an example of the SO2 emission auction. The results show that the optimal bidding strategy is related to the value and regret behavior of the bidder. The optimal bidding strategy is the decreasing function of the winner’s regret parameter and an increasing function of the loser’s regret parameter. The optimal rational bidding strategy is the best When the number of bidders is very large, the perfectly rational optimal bidding strategy is reporting its own true valuation. When considering only the bidder’s winning regret, the optimal bidding strategy has the same result as the linear auction model , And is less than the perfect rational bidding strategy. When considering only the bidder’s regret, the optimal bidding strategy is higher than the perfectly rational bidding strategy. Compared with the linear auction model, the optimal bidding strategy is obtained from the nonlinear auction model The optimal bidding strategy is closer to the real bidding. The proposed nonlinear auction model provides a reference for solving the problem of determining the optimal bidding strategy considering the psychological behavior of bidders in the real auction.