镇平为一代粘虫常发区，掌握其发生发展规律，对防治工作至关重要。通过对１９７２～１９９５年历年粘虫资料的整理研究，建立了一代粘虫发生量和发生期两个预测模式。现报告如下：１一代粘虫发生量（ｙ１）预测模式的建立对影响粘虫发生量的温度、湿度、蛾量、食料、天敌... Township as a generation of common armyworm habitat, to grasp the occurrence and development of law, prevention and control work is essential. Through the research on the data of armyworm in 1972 ~ 1995, the two forecasting modes of occurrence and occurrence of armyworm were established. The report is as follows: 1 generation of armyworm occurrence (y1) prediction model established on the impact of the occurrence of armyworm occurrence temperature, humidity, moth quantity, food, natural enemies ...