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水资源是支撑区域社会经济实现可持续发展的前提和基础,也是地方政府决策经济发展模式的重要依据。引洮工程通水前,受水区水资源极度匮乏,水资源承载力表现为人口和经济总量的严重超载,工程通水从根本上改变了用水紧缺的局面。文章运用多目标分析法对该区域经济社会发展“十三五”规划的目标方案对照分析得出,受水区水资源承载力与实际人口处于基本均衡状态、经济总量呈现富余状态。说明引洮工程为受水区经济、社会、生态等事业提供了较大的发展空间。构建水资源承载力评价体系并进行分析计算,结果显示,工程调水使受水区水资源承载力等级从Ⅲ级上升为Ⅱ级,但对水资源条件的变化影响不明显。因此,对地方政府而言,加快推进产业结构调整、城镇化和生态建设步伐,推广应用节水技术应该是提高水资源效益重要的决策依据。
Water resources are the preconditions and foundations for supporting sustainable socio-economic development in the region and an important basis for the local government’s decision-making economic development model. Before the introduction of the project, the water resources in the water receiving area were extremely scarce, and the carrying capacity of water resources was seriously overloaded by the total population and the total economic output. The project water transfer fundamentally changed the water shortage situation. The article uses the multi-objective analysis method to compare the economic and social development of the region with the target plan of the “13th Five-Year Plan”, and draws a conclusion that the carrying capacity of water resources in water area is in a basically balanced state with the actual population, and the total economy appears surplus. The results show that the project cited for the water area economy, society, ecology and other undertakings provided a larger space for development. The evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity was established and analyzed. The results showed that the water diversion project raised the level of water resources carrying capacity from Ⅲ to Ⅱ, but had no obvious effect on the changes of water resources. Therefore, for local governments, accelerating the pace of industrial restructuring, urbanization and ecological construction and promoting the application of water-saving technologies should be the important decision-making basis for improving water resources efficiency.