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文章基于贸易渠道构建了包含244个国家的全球网络,利用复杂网络方法和具有潜伏期的SEIR模型对欧债危机传染性进行了模拟分析,并将随机网络与实际网络的传染性进行了对比。结果发现:全球网络具有无标度特征和小世界特征;全球网络的复杂性既表现出对危机的扩散性,又表现出吸收性,全球网络具备稳健性特征;危机传染力在低于扩散阈值时不会对他国构成负外部性,但危机越严重传染范围越广,高于崩溃阈值后传染范围达到最大;中国与美国在全球网络中节点度相同,但在传染模拟中中国先于美国被传染,且危机潜伏期越久此种特征越明显。
Based on the trade channel, the article builds a global network of 244 countries, uses the complicated network method and latent period SEIR model to simulate the contagion of the European debt crisis, and compares the stochastic network with the actual network contagion. The results show that the global network has the characteristics of scale-free and small-world. The complexity of the global network shows both the diffusivity of the crisis and its absorptiveness. The global network has the characteristics of robustness. The crisis contagious power is below the diffusion threshold It will not negatively affect other countries, but the more serious the crisis is, the wider the scope of the epidemic is. The extent of the epidemic above the threshold of the collapse reaches the maximum. China and the United States have the same degree of nodes in the global network, but in the simulation of infection China precedes the United States Infection, and the longer the crisis latency, the more obvious such characteristics.