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商业景气指数是反映商业活动运行的周期状态和行业变动趋势的一种综合指数。它为商业运行提供客观分析与预判信号,更好地实现市场运行管理和监控,对于各类市场主体进行经济决策意义重大。本研究通过建立商业景气指标体系,构建先行指标、一致指标及滞后指标,完成了商业景气合成指数及预警信号设计;以黑龙江省为例,选取代表行业检验了本文的商业景气合成指数及预警设计的科学性及可操作性。
The Business Climate Index is a composite index that reflects the cyclical status of business operations and trends in the industry. It provides objective analysis and forecast signal for commercial operation, and better realizes market operation management and monitoring. It makes great economic decisions for all kinds of market players. In this study, the business climate index system was established to build the leading indicators, consistent indicators and lagging indicators to complete the business climate composite index and early warning signal design; taking Heilongjiang Province as an example, select the representative industry to test the business climate composite index and early warning design Scientific and operational.