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在对外开放的过程中,中国经济持续稳定地高速增长,创造了世界经济发展史上的“中国奇迹”。然而,我们就国际贸易与经济增长关系的认识还局限在线性增长的框架中。在一个非线性增长的视角下,这篇文章显示,国际贸易活动中的知识溢出效应和市场范围的扩展激发了中国经济从传统技术下的低增长路径向现代工业技术下高增长路径的转换,技术变迁、工业革命和经济起飞联合内生。通过把国际贸易发展的门槛效应、技术变迁与中国经济发展的非线性行为联系起来,这篇文章从理论和经验上揭示了中国经济从贫困向现代经济增长起飞的一个重要机制。
In the process of opening up to the outside world, China’s economy maintained a steady and rapid growth, creating a “China miracle” in the history of world economic development. However, our understanding of the relationship between international trade and economic growth is still limited to the framework of linear growth. From a nonlinear growth perspective, this article shows that the knowledge spillover effect and the expansion of market scope in international trade activities have stimulated the transformation of China’s economy from a low-growth path under the traditional technology to a high-growth path under the modern industrial technology. Technological change, the industrial revolution and economic take-off combined endogenous. By linking the threshold effect of international trade development and technological change with the non-linear behavior of China’s economic development, this article reveals theoretically and empirically an important mechanism for China’s economy to take off from poverty to modern economic growth.