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中国经济正面临多个产业的总量或结构性产能过剩的巨大压力,这一现象不能完全归因于经济的周期波动和扩张性货币、财政政策,还需从企业产能投资行为的竞争战略和产业政策的视角予以分析。本文以2000—2013年我国乘用车制造行业的微观数据为基础,对三十多家企业产能扩张的战略性动因进行了实证研究。研究发现:企业的新增投资与竞争者的扩张行为正相关,即存在“潮涌现象”或攀比效应;行业产能利用率、需求增长率与新增投资决策之间没有十分确定的关系;政府对汽车行业的投资限制和管制,只在一定期间获得了预期的目标。基于Probit模型的计量检验在支持“潮涌现象”的同时,并未发现在位者通过对产能利用率的扭曲,以维持市场份额和限制进入的确切证据。对合资和自主品牌制造企业产能扩张行为的边际效应检验则发现,影响这两类企业产能投资的因素存在明显的差异。
China’s economy is facing tremendous pressure on the total amount of various industries or structural overcapacity. This phenomenon can not be completely attributed to the cyclical fluctuations in the economy and the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. It also requires a competitive strategy based on investment in productive capacity of enterprises and Industrial policy perspective to be analyzed. Based on the micro-data of China’s passenger car manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2013, this paper conducts an empirical research on the strategic motivation of the capacity expansion of more than 30 enterprises. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the new investment of the firm and the expansion of the competitors, that is, there is a phenomenon of “surge phenomenon” or comparisons; there is not a very definite relationship between the industry capacity utilization rate, the demand growth rate and the new investment decision; The government’s investment restrictions and controls on the auto industry have only achieved the expected targets for a certain period of time. Probit-based model-based metrological tests, while supporting the “surge phenomenon,” did not reveal the exact evidence that incumbents passed market share and restricted access through distortions in capacity utilization. The test of marginal effect on capacity expansion of joint ventures and self-owned brand manufacturing enterprises found that there are obvious differences in the factors that affect the capacity investment of these two types of enterprises.