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自2012年以来,我国进出口贸易结束了两位数的高增长,在连续3年个位数增长后,2015年出现负增长,这一现象是改革开放30多年以来我国外贸首次出现。国内外经济形势变化的负面影响是造成这一形势的直接主要原因,除此之外,是否还存在生产要素禀赋正面因素导致进口下降也颇值得探讨和研究。“进口替代”作为国家外贸战略之一,在促进我国工业发展方面起到积极作用,但同时也起到了抑制进口的作用,尤其是近年来,随着我国人力、资本和技术等生产要素禀赋水平的迅猛提高,“进口替代”抑制进口的效应日显突出,成为我国进口增速下降不可忽视的因素之一。当前我国已进入“进口替代”快速发展阶段,其主要集中在低、中技术相关产业,我国“进口替代”是市场选择的结果。因此,应从“进口替代”角度正确认识我国进口增速减缓的现状,在对外经贸谈判和“走出去”战略制定中可优先考虑放开“进口替代”显著的行业或产品,在国家产业政策制定时可优先考虑支持“进口替代”不明显的行业或产品。
Since 2012, China’s import and export trade ended double-digit high growth. After three consecutive years of single-digit growth, the negative growth in 2015 showed that China’s foreign trade has emerged for the first time since the reform and opening up for more than 30 years. In addition, the negative impact of the changes in the economic situation both at home and abroad is the direct and main cause of this situation. Besides, whether there is still a positive decline in the import of endowments of production factors is quite worth exploring and studying. As one of the national foreign trade strategies, “import substitution” has played an active role in promoting China’s industrial development. However, it has also played a role in curbing imports. In recent years, with the development of China’s human resources, capital and technology, The rapid increase in the level of endowment and the effect of the “import substitution” to suppress imports have become increasingly prominent and have become one of the factors that can not be ignored in the declining import growth rate of our country. At present, our country has entered a stage of rapid development of “import substitution”, which is mainly concentrated in low and medium technology-related industries. China’s “import substitution” is the result of market choice. Therefore, we should correctly understand the current situation of the slowdown of China’s import growth from the perspective of “import substitution” and give priority to opening up significant industries or products under “import substitution” in the formulation of foreign trade and economic negotiation and “going global” strategy , In the formulation of national industrial policy may give priority to support the “import substitution” is not obvious in the industry or product.