近年来随着医疗手段的改进,急性心肌梗塞(以下简称 AMI)的急性期(8周)存活率有较大提高,而远期预后问题则较突出。国内外的心血管病工作者试图用数学方法分析影响远期预后的主要因素,并估计生存期。如用回归分析法建立生存期与主要预后因素的单个回归方程,以预测远期生存期。对估计远期预后有一定作用。单个回归方程较之凭经验预测,提高了准确性,但也有不足,如考核组符合率较低。究其原因,笔者认为,急性期后死亡者,猝死率较高(占40%以上),而临床认为猝死的重要因素如高血压类心血管病史等 In recent years, with the improvement of medical treatment, the survival rate of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in acute phase (8 weeks) has been greatly improved, while the long-term prognosis is more prominent. Cardiovascular workers at home and abroad try to use mathematical methods to analyze the main factors that affect the long-term prognosis and to estimate the survival. For example, regression analysis was used to establish a single regression equation between survival and major prognostic factors to predict long-term survival. Estimates of long-term prognosis have a role. Single regression equation compared with the empirical prediction, improve the accuracy, but there are also deficiencies, such as the assessment group with a lower rate. The reason, I believe that those who died after the acute phase, the higher the rate of sudden death (accounting for more than 40%), and clinically important factors that sudden death such as history of hypertension such as cardiovascular disease