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石油公司发现,估算3D地震资料的采集、处理和解释费用较容易。然而,首先还需要一些与成本有关的价值预测来获得地震资料采集预算的批准。本文阐述了在施工之前如何预测3D地震的价值。 通过把财务与统计分析方法相结合,可估算出3D资料价值,但最终还将取决于以下两点: 1)对科学成功概率(P_s)的可能影响; 2)对支出与收益的数额及时限的可能影响,以及对预期的现金流量最终净现值(NPV)的可能影响。 几家油公司已公布的历史资料表明,3D地震资料几乎对油气勘探开发的每一方面都产生了极大影响。估计附加的资料如何改变钻井和资金支出计划以及随后的所有活动,将有助于了解可能的现金流量范围以及对NPV的影响。 了解对现金流量的潜在影响,可以确定出完全信息的期望值(EVPI)。因为任何信息都不是完善的,所以EVPI将代表信息价值的一个上限,其它不确定性因素决定附加信息的实际价值。 一旦了解对NPV和P_s的可能影响之后,采用决策树方法便可观测出信息的价值。然后,还需要把信息价值与其成本进行对比,以便决定该项目是否继续进行下去。
Oil companies find it easier to estimate 3D seismic data acquisition, processing and interpretation costs. However, first, some cost-related value forecasts are needed to obtain the approval of the seismic data acquisition budget. This article explains how to predict the value of 3D earthquakes before construction. The value of 3D data can be estimated by combining financial and statistical analysis methods, but ultimately will depend on the following two points: 1) the likely impact on the probability of scientific success (P_s); 2) the amount and timing of expenditures and benefits And the possible impact on the final net present value (NPV) of the expected cash flow. Historical data published by several oil companies shows that 3D seismic data have had a tremendous impact on almost every aspect of oil and gas exploration and development. Estimating additional information How to change the drilling and capital outlay plan and all subsequent activities will help to understand the range of possible cash flows and their impact on NPV. Understanding the potential impact on cash flow can determine the Expected Value of Complete Information (EVPI). Because none of the information is perfect, EVPI will represent an upper limit on the value of the information and other uncertainties will determine the actual value of the additional information. Once you understand the possible effects on NPV and P_s, the value of the information can be observed using a decision tree approach. Then, you also need to compare the value of the information with its costs in order to decide whether the project will continue.