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发电商对中标概率的主观判断是影响竞价策略选择的重要因素。以发电商采取不同竞价策略时中标电量的分布情况为条件概率,利用贝叶斯公式,将主观判断和条件概率相结合得到后验概率,发电商根据后验概率调整竞价策略以使收益最大化。针对主观判断的不同提出竞价策略系数概念,并基于此给出最优报价策略。算例表明该方法具有实用性和有效性。
The subjective judgments of generators on the probability of successful bidding are the important factors that influence the choice of bidding strategies. Taking the distribution of winning bid power when different bidding strategies are adopted by generators as the conditional probability, the posterior probability is obtained by combining the subjective judgments and conditional probabilities using the Bayesian formula. The power producer adjusts the bidding strategy according to the posterior probability to maximize the returns . According to the difference of subjective judgment, this paper proposes the concept of bidding strategy coefficient and gives the optimal bidding strategy based on it. The example shows that the method is practical and effective.