本文基于陕西眉县237个农户的实地调研数据,对项目期末的退耕还林工程的经济可持续性进行定量评价与分析。本文首先运用二元Logit模型分析了农户地块退耕的决定因素,研究发现:地块坡度、土壤质地和离水源的距离,是决定地块是否被退耕的主要因素。其次,运用非观测效应的一阶差分模型,定量评价了退耕还林工程的收入效果。结果表明:在陕西眉县,退耕户总收入低于非退耕户总收入,其原因主要在于尽管退耕还林工程增加了农户的畜牧业收入,但由于退耕户的种植收入和非农就业收入都低于非退耕户,而且农户没能及时足够地获得退耕还林补贴,因此,总收入较低。退耕还林工程并没实现调整农户产业结构和就业结构的目标,项目期末,如果没有政府补贴,退耕户很可能因为收入来源单一而复耕,中国退耕还林工程的经济可持续性令人担忧。 Based on the field survey data of 237 farmer households in Meixian County, Shaanxi Province, this paper quantitatively evaluates and analyzes the economic sustainability of the project of converting farmland into forestry at the end of the project. This paper first analyzes the determinants of farmland conversion by using Logistic regression model. It is found that the slope, the soil quality and the distance from the water source are the main factors determining whether the land is returned to cultivation. Secondly, using the first-order difference model of non-observational effect, we quantitatively evaluate the income effect of the conversion of cropland to forest project. The results showed that in Meixian County of Shaanxi Province, the total income of retreating households was lower than that of non-retreating households. The main reason is that although the project of returning farmland to afforesting increased the income of livestock husbandry, the planting income and non-farm employment income of retreating households Which is lower than that of the non-retreat farm households, and the farmer fails to get enough subsidies for the conversion of farmland to forests in a timely manner. Therefore, the total income is lower. The project of returning land for farming to forestry has not achieved the goal of adjusting the industrial structure and employment structure of farmers. If there is no government subsidy at the end of the project, it is very likely that the returning farmland households will be rehabilitated due to their single source of income and the economic sustainability of the project of converting farmland into forests is worrying .