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大量双低企业的存在是导致某些行业产能过剩的一个重要原因。本文基于这类企业主要参与者的“成本——收益”简化模型,分析了其“空转”或“不退出”行为发生的经济机理。本文以我国汽车行业“双低企业”数据库为基础,使用零膨胀负二项回归模型的计量分析发现:(1)经营绩效的高低不是导致低效企业空转时间长短的关键要素,即市场竞争对企业退出决策没有实质性影响;(2)在受规制的汽车行业,地方政府保护是“双低企业”长期存在的体制性诱因;(3)进入和退出政策在标准与实施机制上的不对称,延长了企业的空转时间。从企业实际退出或者失败角度进行的Probit检验也部分佐证了经营绩效和产业政策的相关性。本文还分析了汽车行业“特别公示制”这一退出机制的实施困境:进入规制导致了对在位者的过度保护,使得低效企业更易获得政府“父爱主义”保护的同时,也面临着更高的行政性退出壁垒。就供给侧结构性改革中的“去产能”问题而言,只有实现低效产能企业的有序退出,才能破除政府直接干预企业微观行为的体制基础,从而使市场在企业退出决策中发挥决定性作用。
The existence of a large number of low-double businesses is one of the major causes of overcapacity in some industries. Based on the “cost-benefit” simplified model of the main players in this kind of enterprise, this paper analyzes the economic mechanism of its “idle” or “not exit” behavior. Based on the analysis of the negative binomial regression model of zero-expansion in our country’s automobile industry, we find: (1) The level of business performance is not the key factor leading to the idle time of inefficient enterprises, that is, the market (2) In the regulated automotive industry, local government protection is a long-standing institutional incentive for “double-low firm”; (3) Entry and exit policies are not standardized in the standards and implementation mechanisms Asymmetric on the extension of business idle time. The Probit test from the point of actual exit or failure of the enterprise partially supports the correlation between business performance and industrial policy. This paper also analyzes the dilemma of the exit mechanism of automobile industry “special publicity system ”: entry regulation leads to over-protection of incumbents, at the same time that inefficient enterprises are more protected by government “paternalism ” , Also face a higher administrative exit barriers. In terms of “going to capacity ” in the supply-side structural reform, only an orderly exit of inefficient enterprises can break the institutional foundation for direct government intervention in the micro-activities of enterprises so as to make the market play an active role in enterprises’ exit decision-making Decisive role.