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新千年第一年,全球经济尤其是美国经济雪上加霜,中国经济却锦上添花:在宏观经济一片大好的情况下,申奥成功,继而加入世贸组织。然而,正是这种周围星光暗淡、自己一枝独秀的状况及趋势可能正在改变中国经济发展的内部环境和外部环境。而据福卡经济预测研究所研究表明,房地产周期和经济周期之间,有着一个不易被人觉察的错峰错谷现象——房地产先于经济复苏、晚于经济衰退,两者的波峰、波谷并不完全重叠,波长也不同。中国经济2000年迎来拐点,但房地产业从1998年就开始全面复苏,到2000年则出现了一个小高潮。随着2002年中国经济的热启动,房地产业也进入敏感时期:市场会有一个疲软
In the first year of the new millennium, the global economy, especially the U.S. economy, even worsened. The Chinese economy was even more icing on the cake: under the great macroeconomic situation, the successful bid to host the Olympic Games and its subsequent accession to the WTO. However, it is this darkening star surroundings and its own standouts and trends that may be changing the internal and external environment for China’s economic development. According to Fokka Institute of Economic Forecasting research shows that between the real estate cycle and the economic cycle, there is a not easy to be aware of the wrong peak phenomenon - real estate before the economic recovery, later than the economic recession, the two peaks and troughs Not completely overlapping, the wavelength is also different. The Chinese economy ushered in a turning point in 2000, but the real estate industry has been fully recovering since 1998, and a small upsurge appeared in 2000. With the hot start of China’s economy in 2002, the real estate industry has also entered a sensitive period: the market will have a weakness