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用古诺模型研究了Price-maker型水电厂在电力市场下的策略报价问题。将系统中各厂商的竞争简化为己方和虚拟对手组成的双人博弈,提出一种基于历史数据、分析对手行为的可行方法。该方法通过分析历史可获得数据,求取对手成本函数参数及系统的逆需求函数,由此获得合理的对手策略估计,并求取在此可能对手策略下的己方最优策略,从而达到己方收益最大的目标。
The Cournot model is used to study the strategy quotation of Price-maker hydropower plant in power market. The competition of each manufacturer in the system is reduced to a two-person game composed of one’s own and virtual opponent, and a feasible method of analyzing adversary’s behavior based on historical data is proposed. The method obtains the opponent ’s cost function parameters and the system’ s inverse demand function by analyzing the historical available data, so as to obtain a reasonable opponent strategy estimate and obtain the own optimal strategy under this possible opponent strategy so as to achieve the gain of one ’s own side The biggest goal.