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应用信息扩散模糊数学方法 ,以发生面积比例作为灾害指数 ,对广东省肇庆市的稻飞虱灾害风险进行评估 .结果表明 ,稻飞虱灾害风险值随灾害指数升高而下降 .在早稻期间 ,高要、四会、广宁、怀集、封开、德庆、端州等县区在灾害指数为 30 %时的风险值分别是0 0 0 9,0 10 7,0 2 13,0 2 6 3,0 4 2 2 ,0 392 ,0 4 4 9,其中端州和封开的风险值最高 ,表明这两个县区几乎每隔一年 ,稻飞虱发生面积就超过播种面积的 30 % .晚稻期间 ,该市稻飞虱灾害风险值明显低于早稻 ,但德庆县的灾害指数为 30 %的风险值仍然高达 0 2 98.
Applying the information diffusion fuzzy mathematics method, taking the area ratio as the disaster index, the risk of rice planthopper disasters was evaluated in Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province.The results showed that the risk value of planthopper disasters decreased with the increase of disaster index.In early rice period, The risk values of Gaoyao, Sihui, Quang Ninh, Huaiji, Fengkai, Deqing, Duanzhou and other counties are 0 0 0 9,0 10 7,0 2 13,0 2 when the disaster index is 30% 6 3,0 4 2 2 0 392 0 4 4 9, of which the highest risk value of Duanzhou and Fengkai indicated that almost every one year in these two counties, the occurrence of planthoppers exceeded the sown area by 30% % During the late rice period, the risk of planthopper disasters was significantly lower than that of the early rice, but the risk value of 30% of the disaster index in Deqing County was still as high as 988.