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为解决庞大数量的病险水库除险加固工程的除险加固先后次序,提出了以风险指数为评判核心的群坝风险排序方法。从大坝安全管理系统的三大缺陷(大坝缺陷、基础设施缺陷、OMS缺陷)入手,先给出水库大坝实际缺陷和潜在缺陷的相关特征参数;再通过各缺陷特征参数脆弱度的计算确立坝体脆弱指数;并由溃坝后生命损失、经济损失及社会与环境影响,将溃坝后果划分为4个级别并赋值相应后果系数;然后依据脆弱指数与后果系数,深入研究水库大坝风险指数的计算方法与计算流程,获得了基于大坝缺陷的群坝风险排序方法;最后,以江西省夏园、井冈冲、前进、凤岭和殷山共5座水库为工程案例进行实例分析,分析结果表明,该方法能够客观比较各水库大坝的风险情况,便于使用。
In order to solve the sequence of eliminating and reinforcing of a large number of dangerous reservoirs for reinforcement project, a risk assessment method based on risk index is proposed. Starting from the three major defects of dam safety management system (dam defects, infrastructure defects and OMS defects), the related characteristic parameters of reservoir dam actual defects and potential defects are given first. Then the vulnerability of each dam is calculated The dam fragility index is established. According to the loss of life, economic loss and social and environmental impact after the dam failure, the dam failure results are divided into four levels and assigned corresponding consequence coefficients. Based on the vulnerability index and the consequence coefficient, Finally, taking the summer reservoir, Jinggangchong, Qianjin, Fengling and Yin Mountain of Jiangxi Province as a case study, a case study was carried out to analyze the calculation method and calculation flow of risk index. The results show that this method can objectively compare the risk of each reservoir dam and make it easy to use.