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本文通过构建“基准深度比”这一新方法,对相关国家和经济集团的保险业增长水平进行重新评估和比较,并在此基础上讨论其政策启示。主要结论是:第一,我们需要对国际保险业增长格局有一个新的认识:发达市场的保险业相对增长水平较传统指标有所降低,发展中市场的保险业相对增长水平较传统指标有所提升;发达市场的保险业相对增长水平仍高于发展中市场,但新兴市场和“金砖四国”的增长态势十分强劲,并已达到较高水平。第二,保险公司的全球战略布局,一方面要继续巩固发达市场,另一方面要积极开拓发展中市场,同时需要特别注意新兴市场和“金砖四国”的保险业相对增长已经达到较高水平,未来增长潜力虽仍然很大,但将主要依靠经济增长的常规拉动,保险业增长模式将发生很大变化。第三,发展中国家保险产业政策的重点不应是强调量上的增长,而应是强调增长方式的调整和提升,以便为未来长远阶段的保险业持续增长奠定坚实的基础。第四,传统分析范式存在局限,亟需构建更加完善的保险业国际比较的新范式,以使国际保险监管合作和相关国际贸易谈判具备一个更加合理的对话基础。
This paper re-evaluates and compares the growth of the insurance industry of relevant countries and economic groups by building a new method of “base-depth ratio”, and on the basis of this, discusses its policy implications. The main conclusions are as follows: First, we need to have a new understanding of the growth pattern of the international insurance industry: the relative growth of the insurance industry in developed markets is lower than that of the traditional indicators; and the growth of the insurance industry in developing markets is more traditional than the traditional ones The relative growth of the insurance industry in developed markets is still higher than that of developing markets, but the growth in emerging markets and BRICs is very strong and has reached a relatively high level. Second, the global strategic layout of insurance companies, on the one hand, should continue to consolidate the developed markets and on the other hand, actively explore the developing markets. At the same time, special attention needs to be paid to the relative growth of the insurance industry in emerging markets and the BRIC countries. High level of future growth potential is still great, but will rely mainly on the conventional pull of economic growth, the insurance industry will have a great change in the growth model. Third, the focus of the insurance industry policies in developing countries should not be to emphasize quantitative growth but instead emphasize the adjustment and promotion of the mode of growth in order to lay a solid foundation for the continued growth of the insurance industry in the long run. Fourthly, there are limitations in the traditional paradigm of analysis and it is imperative to build a more complete new paradigm of international comparison of the insurance industry in order to provide a more reasonable basis for dialogue in the international insurance regulatory cooperation and related international trade negotiations.