论文部分内容阅读
自2008年全球经济危机爆发以来,人民币汇率再次被推到饱受争议的位置。以美国为首的团体与个人鼓吹人民币汇率存在严重的低估,且为造成全球贸易失衡的主要原因。本文使用1985年到2010年181个国家的面板数据进行了实证分析,得到了如下四点结论:第一,人民币汇率存在轻微的低估。第二,人民币汇率的升值可以通过提高居民收入或者名义汇率升值的方式实现。第三,人民币汇率的轻微低估不是影响中国对外贸易结余的主要原因。第四,人民币升值能够促进我国第三产业的就业,从而吸收出口行业的剩余劳动力。所以,人民币升值对于中国长期产业结构的调整与可持续发展是有利的。由此可见,人民币升值所带来的好处也与中国“第十二个五年计划”的主旨不谋而合。
Since the global economic crisis broke out in 2008, the RMB exchange rate has once again been pushed to the controversial position. Organizations and individuals led by the United States have advocated a serious undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate and are the main reasons for the global trade imbalance. This paper uses the panel data of 181 countries from 1985 to 2010 to do empirical analysis. The following four conclusions are obtained: First, there is a slight underestimation of RMB exchange rate. Second, the appreciation of the renminbi exchange rate can be achieved by increasing the income of residents or the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. Third, a slight undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate is not the main reason that affects China’s foreign trade balance. Fourth, the appreciation of the renminbi can promote the employment of the tertiary industry in our country so as to absorb the surplus labor force in the export industry. Therefore, RMB appreciation is beneficial to the adjustment and sustainable development of China’s long-term industrial structure. This shows that the benefits brought by the appreciation of the renminbi also coincide with the theme of China’s “12th Five-Year Plan.”