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正如混沌学理论中的蝴蝶效应一样,农民拉拢干部、越级上访、暴力威胁和围攻基层政府等非制度化政治参与行为经过风险社会下众多风险因素的催化,将增加西部民族地区农村治理的难度,扰乱民主化进程,阻碍新型农村政治文化的形成,甚至削弱政治体系的合法性,影响农村社会的稳定。宜通过提升农民的文化素质与组织化程度,疏通并拓宽农民利益表达的渠道,构建新型农村政治文化,加强基层政权建设与规范基层政府行为等手段来规避。
Just as the butterfly effect in chaos theory, the non-institutionalized political participation by peasants over cadres, petty-escalation petitions, threats of violence and siege of the grass-roots government are catalyzed by numerous risky factors in the risk society. This will increase the difficulty of rural governance in the western minority areas, Disrupt the process of democratization, impede the formation of a new type of rural political culture, even weaken the legitimacy of the political system and affect the stability of rural society. It is appropriate to avoid it by means of raising the cultural quality and organization of peasants, dredging and broadening the channels for the expression of peasant interests, building a new type of rural political culture, strengthening the building of grassroots political power and regulating the behavior of grass-roots government.