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选择2000—2014年山东省房屋销售价格指数、山东省国内生产总值GDP、人均可支配收入、开发商投资额的年度数据作为研究样本,利用卡尔曼滤波估计法,对影响山东省房地产价格的因素进行分析,主要结论是,山东省国内生产总值GDP每变动1%,可引致房价大约波动0.28%,山东省城镇居民人均可支配收入每上升1%,大约可拉动房价波动0.33%,而开发商投资额每变动1%,可直接导致房价波动0.38%。这表明,山东省房地产价格的波动主要还在于开发商大量的投资和城镇居民人均可支配收入的上升,而经济增长率的变动对房价的影响相对较小。说明要真正控制房价的波动,管住开发商无节制地开发至关重要。
Shandong Province, 2000-2014 home sales price index, the GDP of Shandong Province, disposable income per capita, the annual investment of developers as a sample, the use of Kalman filter estimation method, the impact of real estate prices in Shandong Province The main conclusion is that every 1% GDP change in GDP in Shandong Province can lead to about 0.28% fluctuation in housing prices. For urban residents in Shandong Province, per capita disposable income rises by 1% per capita, which can drive up the fluctuation of housing prices by about 0.33% Every 1% change in the amount of investment developers, can lead directly to price fluctuations 0.38%. This shows that the fluctuation of real estate prices in Shandong Province is mainly due to a large amount of investment by developers and an increase in per capita disposable income of urban residents, while changes in economic growth rates have relatively little impact on housing prices. Shows that the real control of price fluctuations, to control developers to develop uncontrollably is crucial.