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尽管宏观调控明显遏制了投资过热的势头,但是投资增长的一些不稳定因素依然存在。现阶段投资增长的典型特征仍然处于某种特殊的缓冲期之中, 如果马上放开宏观调控的力度,那么投资有可能再步入失控状态。投资增长尚未达到合理区间。一些专家学者认为,我国潜在的经济增长水平应在9%左右,这与改革以来的长期趋势基本吻合。从1979～2003年平均水平看,GDP实际增长率和投资实际增长率分别为9.4%和12.1%,投资率为32%,投资对GDP的增长弹性为1. 29。如果以投资对GDP的增长弹性的长期趋势1.29计算,并考虑价格因素, 则适应潜在经济增长水平的适度投资增长率应为14%左右。
Although macroeconomic controls have obviously contained the momentum of overheating, some of the unstable factors of investment growth still exist. The typical characteristics of investment growth at this stage are still in a special buffer period, if the release of macro-control efforts immediately, then the investment may go out of control again. Investment growth has not yet reached a reasonable range. Some experts and scholars believe that the potential level of economic growth in our country should be around 9%, which is in line with the long-term trend since the reform. From the average of 1979 to 2003, the real growth rate of GDP and real growth rate of investment were 9.4% and 12.1% respectively, the investment rate was 32% and the growth elasticity of investment to GDP was 1.29. If the long-term trend of the elasticity of investment in GDP growth is calculated at 1.29 and considering price factors, the moderate rate of investment growth that accommodates the potential level of economic growth should be around 14%.