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目的分析辽宁省阜新市2009-2015年手足口病流行病学特征,预测手足口病短期趋势。方法采用描述流行病学分析和相关统计分析方法,对阜新市2009-2015年手足口病的流行病学特征进行统计分析。利用2009-01/2016-06的分月手足口病发病数时间序列构建自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12。结果 2009-2015年阜新市共报告手足口病4 419例,年均发病率为30.72/10万,无死亡病例,全市7个县(区)均出现不同程度的流行,以市区、县为主。时间分布呈单峰型,主要集中在6~8月;年龄以≤5岁儿童为主,集中在散居儿童和幼托儿童;病原类型以EV71为优势病原,柯萨奇A组16型(Cox A16)和其他肠道病毒所占比例接近。结论阜新市手足口病季节性明显,呈周期性流行,市区和县是重点防控地区,不同地区优势病原不同,病原监测尽量采集发病7天内的样本,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可用于阜新市手足口病短期预测。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Fuxin City of Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2015 and predict the short-term trend of HFMD. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis and related statistical analysis methods were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Fuxin City from 2009 to 2015. ARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,1) 12 was constructed using monthly time series of hand foot and mouth disease from January 2009 to June 2016. Results In 2009-2015, 4 419 HFMD cases were reported in Fuxin City, with an average annual incidence of 30.72 / 100 000. There were no deaths, and 7 counties (districts) of the city showed different degrees of prevalence. In urban areas and counties, the Lord. The distribution of time was unimodal, mainly from June to August. The age was dominated by children less than 5 years old, mainly in diaspora and preschool children. The pathogen type was EV71, Cox A16) is similar to other enteroviruses. Conclusion Hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuxin City is seasonal and epidemic. The urban and county areas are the key prevention and control areas. The predominant pathogens in different areas are different. The pathogen monitor collects samples within 7 days from onset, and ARIMA (1,0,0) ( 0,1,1) 12 model can be used for short-term prediction of hand-foot-mouth disease in Fuxin city.