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本文给出一个根据观测资料估计地震概率并决定是否发布预报的方法。此法由六个步骤组成:1.系统观测可能的干扰因素,通过相关分析排除干扰,求出离差及其标准误差,根据所取正常值的范围估计单项单点异常概率;2.用一定准则选取异常、地震和确定对应关系后,全面检查异常与地震对应程度,给出一个求算单项单点异常与地震间相关系数的简便近似方法;3.根据上述相关系数和样本数估计观测点控制区内地震的单元概率;4.给出一个求算多项多点异常与地震间相关系数的方法;5.根据上述相关系数和样本数估计监视区内地震的综合概率;6.给出根据得失对比决定是否发布预报的准则。
This paper presents a method to estimate the earthquake probability from observed data and decide whether or not to publish the forecast. This method is composed of six steps: 1. The system may observe possible interference factors, eliminate interference by correlation analysis, find out the deviation and standard error, and estimate the single-point anomaly probability according to the range of the normal value; After selecting the anomalies, the earthquakes and determining the corresponding relations, the guidelines comprehensively check the correspondence between the anomalies and the earthquakes and give a simple and approximate method for calculating the correlation coefficients between single-point anomalies and earthquakes. 3. Based on the above correlation coefficient and the number of samples, Control the unit probability of earthquakes in the area; 4. give a method for calculating the correlation coefficient between multiple multiple anomalies and earthquakes; 5. estimate the overall probability of earthquakes in the area under surveillance based on the above correlation coefficient and number of samples; According to the pros and cons contrast whether to publish the forecast criteria.