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近年来中国房地产市场波动加剧,引发学界和社会的高度关注,而中国政府在房地产经济发展中起着举足轻重的作用。鉴于此,本文将从政府视角探讨政府收支行为对房地产经济波动的影响。基于1992—2015年中国宏观月度数据,利用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)实证分析发现:税收正向冲击使房地产投资和房地产价格下降;而政府支出正向冲击对房地产投资及其价格产生正效应。为更好地诠释这一特征事实,本文将垄断竞争、黏性价格、政府支出的正外部性以及信贷约束嵌入一个多部门DSGE框架,考察税收和政府支出对房地产的宏观经济效应,并分析其作用机理,研究表明:(1)该模型能较好地拟合上述特征事实;(2)在中国财政政策对房地产投资及其价格效应的传导机制中,政府支出的正外部性、企业的信贷约束和土地财政发挥关键作用。
In recent years, the real estate market in China has become increasingly volatile, triggering a great deal of attention from academia and society. The Chinese government plays an important role in the real estate economy. In view of this, this article will explore the impact of government revenue and expenditure on the real estate economic fluctuations from the government perspective. Based on China’s macro-monthly data from 1992 to 2015, empirical analysis using SVAR shows that positive tax impact makes real estate investment and real estate prices drop while positive impact of government expenditure has a positive effect on real estate investment and its price . In order to better explain the fact of this feature, this paper embeds the monopolistic competition, the sticky price, the positive externality of government expenditure and the credit constraint into a multi-sectoral DSGE framework and examines the macroeconomic effects of taxation and government spending on real estate and analyzes its (2) In the transmission mechanism of China’s fiscal policy on real estate investment and its price effect, the positive externality of government expenditure, the credit of enterprises Constraints and land finance play a key role.