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针对断裂韧度的不确定性,利用概率理论揭示3试样最小值当量(MOTE)方法的统计意义。基于41个断裂韧度试验数据,通过对母体分布的抽样模拟试验数据,并采用MOTE方法确定模拟数据的断裂韧度特征值,计算其对应的失效概率,并与ASME方法进行对比分析。结果表明:在估计母体的低分位点值时,MOTE方法的置信度较低;采用多试验数据可以得到较为可靠的评定结果,但试验数据大于3时MOTE方法,也只有81.5%的置信度保证断裂韧度特征值低于ASME下限值。
According to the uncertainty of fracture toughness, the statistical significance of the MOTE method of 3 samples is revealed by using the probability theory. Based on the data of 41 fracture toughness tests, the experimental data were simulated by sampling the matrix distribution and the fracture toughness of the simulation data was determined by MOTE method. The corresponding failure probability was calculated and compared with ASME method. The results show that the MOTE method has a low level of confidence in estimating the low quantile value of the maternal body. The reliability of the MOTE method is much better than that of the MOTE method using only three test data, and only 81.5% confidence level The fracture toughness characteristics are below the ASME lower limit.