论文部分内容阅读
2011/12年度全球棉花收获面积增长,产量再次超过2700万t。受经济恢复迟缓等影响,同期棉花消费不足2300万t。国际棉花市场供过于求,期末库存继续增加,库存消费比达到67.4%的历史高点。受全球棉花供求关系和中国棉花临时收储政策等因素影响,国际棉花价格持续下跌,国内棉价相对稳定,国内外价差拉大。全球棉花进出口贸易加大,中国棉花进口激增。展望201213年度,预计全球棉花植棉面积产量下降,消费状况有所好转,但仍产大于需,库存持续增加,在基本面不变的情况下,未来国际棉价仍将保持弱势震荡格局。
Global cotton harvested area increased in 2011/12 with production exceeding 27 million t again. Affected by the sluggish economic recovery, the cotton consumption in the same period was less than 23 million t. International cotton market oversupply, ending stocks continued to increase, the stock consumption ratio reached a historic high of 67.4%. Affected by the global cotton supply and demand and China’s cotton temporary storage policy and other factors, the international cotton prices continued to fall, the domestic cotton price is relatively stable, spread widening at home and abroad. Global cotton import and export trade increased, China’s cotton imports surge. Looking forward to 2012-13, the global cotton output is expected to decline, the consumption situation is expected to improve, but still produce more than needed. Inventories continue to rise. In the case of the same fundamentals, the future international cotton prices will remain weak and volatile pattern .